Can Denver Hold on Without Paul Millsap?

{Originally Published For 94 Feet Report}

Nearly three weeks into the potential three months without Paul Millsap, the Denver Nuggets are 5–5 (including the game he sustained the injury). Over this stretch, Nikola Jokic missed three games and may miss games into next week as well.

Jokic’s absence leaves Denver overly dependent upon their guards in Gary Harris & Will Barton for any offensive output, but the more pressing matter for the Nuggets is consistency. In just their past ten games, seven of them have been decided by 15 points or more. Including Monday’s loss to the Dallas Mavericks in which they were down 21 points nine minutes into the first quarter.

This type of outcome has been far more common for Denver in recent weeks, beginning even before Millsap went out. Losing by 17 to Dallas without Jokic, Millsap, and a hampered Wilson Chandler is yet another brutal loss to this team that many picked to finish the year comfortably in playoff contention.

With a negative Net Rating, it’s remarkable that they’ve made it to their 14–11 record.

Along with Millsap and Jokic, Wilson Chandler has been dealing with injuries in the team’s recent stretch. The absence of these players has forced more minutes upon lesser options in Faried and Plumlee who played a combined 47 minutes last night. It also means more minutes for Emmanuel Mudiay.

As of Friday morning, Denver sits tied for fifth with the sinking Trail Blazers. Operating in a Western conference where seeds 4 through 8 are separated by two games, Denver could find themselves out of seeding by the end of the week.

Before the loss of Millsap, Denver was defensively challenged in all areas. With him gone and lesser offensive options taking his place, Denver may be a sinking ship. On the year, Opponents are playing some of their most efficient basketball against Denver with teams shooting nearly 39% from deep, which ranks 28th. It’s the same rank they held last season and the only teams worse are Sacramento and Milwaukee. Their opponents have a startling 55% Effective Field Goal Percentage, and seem to be right on track as to where they ended up last season. Millsap gave them a defensive option next to Jokic, but his loss offensively may be even more devastating.

Since the Millsap Injury, the Nuggets have been in the bottom 10 in assists per game and have seen their percentage of 3-pointers go from one of the best to 17th over the past eight games. Over that same stretch, their FG% has ranked 26th, and their Net Rating sits at an alarming -5.3, which ranks 23rd. In case you’re wondering, they’re ahead of the Kings, Magic, Blakeless Clippers, Suns, Grizzlies, Hawks, and the Bulls. Last season Denver finished fifth in True Shooting percentage. This season they’re ranked 11th, and 22nd in the games without Millsap.

Despite everything he adds to them on both ends of the court, Millsap’s biggest addition may simply be his presence. A veteran who’s been there before and gives consistent offensive production every night is an extremely valuable commodity for a team with its outlook dependent upon the ability of Jokic, Harris, and a mix of role players and kids.

Will Barton, Harris, and Chandler lead this team in minutes. Harris is a valuable player to have on the floor next to Millsap and Jokic but with both out more responsibility has been put on his shoulders. Barton is shooting 42% on threes and has an EFG% of 56 percent, which is pretty good. Wilson Chandler, who plays 29.9 minutes per game, has a PER of 9.21. This puts him at 287th in the league. That’s tucked in along with Shabazz Muhammad, Micheal Carter Williams, Tony Allen, Jae Crowder, and not too far off from Josh Hart of the Los Angeles Lakers. He’s shooting a career low 39% from the field an has the lowest PPS of any players on Denver who have appeared in at least ten games.

Additionally, Chandler is shooting an atrocious 29% from three. His early struggles can be attributed to injury but when it comes to Chandler look at his NetRtg. Only once in his career has he had a positive NetRtg, and that was in 2012–13 when he played 43 games. This season Chandler has a net rating of -9, and while his DRtg hasn’t declined since last season, his offense has fallen off a cliff, going from -4 to -9.

At 30 and multiple injuries in, Chandler’s recent struggles may not just be a slow start. In an era of position-less basketball, Chandler is the only true small forward they have other than Richard Jefferson. Millsap’s absence makes Chandler even more vital to Denver both as a presence on offense and a bigger wing defender but if he continues to slump Denver will need a herculean type effort from Jokic and a massive turn around in how they structure their lineups.

Mason Plumlee, who was signed to a three year, $41 million deal over the summer, is posting a -5 NetRtg. He’s been far less productive than his 26 games he played with Denver last season, but that can be attributed to less playing time next to Jokic and maybe just not being a good fit. He’s garnered not only more playing time but more consistent playing time than teammates Juan Hernangomez and Trey Lyles who have a combined +15 NetRtg. Lyles, (+10), who is playing 12 mpg on the year has received more playing time since the Millsap injury but is still wildly inconsistent.

The same goes for Hernangomez; he has actually seen his minutes decline in the past few games. The second-year player dealt with a medical condition that held him out for a few weeks, but still, his role (and Lyles’ role) with the team seem unclear. Denver has a plethora of big men but is in need of wings who can play passable basketball. The two are more reliable three-point threats than Plumlee, Chandler, or Kenneth Faried but not quite versatile enough to fill that need.

If Denver can’t find a way to move on from some of their less than productive assets (Mudiay), then their present and future outlook may be in doubt. The West may not look as fine-tuned as expected, but Denver is in no way a team that can coast in into the playoffs (which they found out last season). We’ll have a better idea of how Denver will function when Jokic returns, but as of right now, Denver has much more to figure out if they want to stay afloat until January/February. Denver needs to stop playing Plumlee and Mudiay and should be asking themselves why they missed out on Eric Bledsoe.

With potentially $111 million on the books for next season, this is their team barring a trade. It’ll be hard to find a partner willing to take on some of their larger deals but if they want to make the most of the present, sacrifices will have to be made. Calling Sacramento and checking in on George Hill might be something they want to explore.

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